Bull
No probability available for this date.
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Bear
No probability available for this date.
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Factor gauges (score)
Grouped by category: equity & volatility, credit & rates, leading & fundamentals, macro & positioning.
The green line is RQ B/B Composite from all factors. Add factors and ticker overlays from controls below, then compare selected series directly on the chart.
X-axis is time-proportional (not equal spacing per point). Drag to pan; Alt+drag for zoom box; wheel to zoom.
Factor breakdown + definitions
| Factor (id / name) | Simple definition | Raw | Score [-1..1] | Trend (20d) | As of | Weight | Contribution | Computation (MVP) | Source | Read |
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Methodology (MVP)
Each factor is mapped to roughly [-1, +1], weighted, and combined into a sentiment score. A sigmoid maps that to P(Bull) and P(Bear). Regime thresholds: Bullish ≥ 65%, Bearish ≤ 35%. Missing factors are excluded from the weighted average (not treated as neutral).
- Trend (16.0%): price vs MA50 / MA200
- Momentum (9.0%): 6M/12M return scaled by 3M vol
- VIX stress (12.0%): implied equity volatility
- Breadth (10.0%): share of sector ETFs above MA200
- Credit risk (10.0%): HY−IG OAS spread (fallback: HYG/LQD)
- HY vs Treasuries (3.0%): HY OAS level
- IG vs Treasuries (2.0%): IG OAS level
- Rate regime (8.0%): curve slopes + 10Y real yield mix
- Financial conditions (4.0%): Chicago Fed NFCI (tighter = more bearish)
- Unemployment (2.0%): US civilian unemployment rate (UNRATE, BLS via FRED)
- Leading indicators (5.0%): CFNAI 3M MA, NY Fed WEI, OECD CLI (USALOLITOAASTSAM)
- Earnings momentum (4.0%): YoY % change in corporate profits after tax (CPATAX)
- Output gap (3.0%): real GDP vs CBO potential GDP (%)
- Safe-haven flow (6.0%): SPY vs GLD / UUP 3M relative performance
- Sentiment proxy (3.0%): VIX term structure (VIX3M / VIX − 1)
- Short whale (2.0%): large-trader net short proxy (CFTC TFF)
- Corr ECC (1.0%): equity–credit–commodity correlation stress
Composite: sentiment_score = Σ(weight_i × score_i) / Σ(weight of available factors), then
P(Bull) = sigmoid(k × sentiment_score), P(Bear) = 1 − P(Bull).